Risk-Premia, Carry-Trade Dynamics, and Economic Value of Currency Speculation
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Risk-Premia, Carry-Trade Dynamics, and Speculative Efficiency of Currency Markets
Foreign exchange market efficiency is commonly investigated by Fama-regression tests of uncovered interest parity (UIP). In this paper, we conjecture a speculative UIP relationship which implies that exchange rate changes comprise a time-varying risk component in addition to the forward premium. This suggests that the forward premium anomaly reported in previous research potentially stems from ...
متن کاملOnline Appendix for “The Term Structure of Currency Carry Trade Risk Premia” —Not For Publication—
This Online Appendix describes additional empirical and theoretical results on foreign bond returns in U.S. dollars. Section A reports additional results on portfolios of countries sorted by the short-term interest rates. Section B reports similar results for portfolios of countries sorted by the slope of the yield curves. Section C reports additional results obtained with zero-coupon bonds. Se...
متن کاملOnline Appendix for “The Term Structure of Currency Carry Trade Risk Premia” —Not For Publication—
• Section A gathers robustness checks on empirical results: subsection A.1 reports additional time-series predictability results; subsection A.2 reports additional results on portfolios of countries sorted by the deviation of their short-term interest rate from its 10-year rolling mean; subsection A.3 reports results on portfolios of countries sorted by the short-term interest rate level; subse...
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We use cross-sectional information on the prices of G10 currency options to calibrate a non-Gaussian model of pricing kernel dynamics and construct estimates of conditional currency risk premia. We find that the mean historical returns to short dollar and carry factors (HMLFX ) are statistically indistinguishable from their option-implied counterparts, which are free from peso problems. Skewnes...
متن کاملGeneralized Risk Premia – the Economic Value of Predictability
Using a new measure for predictability combining economic and statistical criteria I find that in the S&P 500 market neither stochastic volatility, nor valuationbased information are advantageous over a homoscedastic return model. The testing framework is based on a benchmark trading strategy with optimal Sharpe ratio. The strategy’s expected excess returns naturally accommodate compensation fo...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: SSRN Electronic Journal
سال: 2008
ISSN: 1556-5068
DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.921339